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US producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and 6.3% y/y in September, the largest monthly jump since March 2022 and well above forecasts, while consumer inflation also beat at 3.7% y/y. The hot prints raise the risk of further Fed tightening, pressuring rate-sensitive equities and lifting front-end yields, though Treasuries rallied Thursday on positioning.
CNBCFed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide forward guidance on rates, leaving markets to infer policy from data. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold at the October 27-28 meeting, with odds of an October hike falling to about 15% and a December hike increasingly priced in, keeping rate uncertainty elevated into the meeting.
Investing.comTwenty of the largest global AI and semiconductor stocks shed over $1 trillion in value this week amid worries about debt-financed AI buildouts, rising rates, and intensifying Chinese competition. CoreWeave's credit stress (bond yield to maturity near 15.78%, CDS above 1,140 bps) crystallized default concerns, triggering a rotation out of chips into healthcare, financials, and small caps.
CNBCRetail sales rose 0.8% m/m versus 0.3% expected, but a 6.4% jump at petrol stations driven by higher fuel prices accounted for most of the gain; sales ex-fuel rose just 0.2% and the GDP control group added only 0.1%. The narrow composition suggests underlying consumer momentum is weaker than the headline implies.
SaxoThe Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to 20.9 in October from 37.8, below expectations and the weakest since June, with new orders, shipments, and employment all slowing. The softening survey data, alongside jobless claims at 199,000, points to cooling activity and could temper the hawkish rate narrative.
SaxoElevated energy prices in the wake of the US-Iran war contributed to the largest wholesale inflation gain since 2022, with a 10.8% rise in energy cited as the biggest PPI contributor. Persistent oil supply risk keeps inflation pressure and commodity volatility elevated, complicating the Fed's path.
CNBC